SpaceX is set to launch its tenth test flight of the Starship megarocket on Sunday, aiming to reverse a string of recent failures that have cast doubt on the ambitious project’s future.

The launch is scheduled for 6:30 pm local time (2330 GMT) from the company’s Starbase facility in southern Texas.

The mission will focus on testing the upper stage’s capabilities during a long suborbital flight, with plans to splash down in the Indian Ocean. Unlike previous attempts, SpaceX won’t attempt to catch the booster with the launch tower’s mechanical “chopstick” arms, opting for a simpler recovery approach.

Starship is central to Elon Musk’s long-term vision of enabling human colonization of Mars. It`s also key to NASA’s Artemis program, which plans to use a modified version of the vehicle to land astronauts on the Moon. But the program has suffered repeated setbacks.

All three Starship flights so far in 2025 have ended in failure, with the upper stage exploding during or after flight. A separate explosion in June occurred during a static fire test on the ground, further fueling concerns about the vehicle’s structural integrity.

SpaceX’s “fail fast, learn fast” approach has been a cornerstone of its development strategy, allowing rapid iteration and innovation. That philosophy helped the company dominate the global launch market with its Falcon rocket family. However, Starship’s challenges have led some observers to question whether the same approach is viable at this much larger scale.

“There’s a lot of pressure on this mission,” said Dallas Kasaboski, a space analyst with Analysys Mason. “We`ve had so many tests and it hasn’t proven itself reliable — the successes have not exceeded the failures.”

Former engineer and commentator Will Lockett was even more critical, arguing that efforts to reduce vehicle weight are compromising structural strength, resulting in repeated failures. “The concept of Starship is fundamentally flawed,” he wrote in a recent post.

Such critiques are gaining traction in mainstream coverage, with headlines like “Is Elon Musk’s Starship Doomed?” reflecting the rising skepticism.

Despite the setbacks, SpaceX is continuing to push forward. The company is expanding its infrastructure in Florida, including launch and landing facilities at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center, and increasing launch frequency in pursuit of full reusability and deep-space readiness.

Yet major challenges remain — from achieving safe in-orbit refueling of super-cooled propellant to building a system that’s both cost-effective and reliable at scale. Sunday’s test is expected to be a pivotal moment for the Starship program and its broader role in the future of space exploration.