As the calendar turns to late May, a familiar dread is sweeping across Bangladesh’s coastal belt –the threat of cyclones is once again on the horizon.

The Bangladesh Meteorological Department has issued early warnings of a developing low-pressure system in the Bay of Bengal, likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm between May 23 and 28.

For a country still reeling from last year’s devastating Cyclone Remal, which struck on May 27, 2024, the timing feels eerily familiar.

And history, it seems, repeats itself.

May: The month of monsoon and monsters

Meteorologists say May is historically one of the most cyclone-prone months in Bangladesh due to a unique confluence of factors: Warming sea surface temperatures, pre-monsoon atmospheric instability, and geographic vulnerability of the Bay of Bengal.

Over the past five years, five out of seven major cyclones have hit during this month. Notable among them are Cyclone Amphan (2020), Yaas (2021), Sitrang (2022), and Mocha and Hamoon (2023).

“May is inherently favourable for cyclone formation,” said Mostafa Kamal Palash, a climate researcher at the University of Saskatchewan. “A low pressure may form as early as the 23rd, with a possible cyclone striking between the 25th and 28th. And if it hits around the new moon on the 27th, when tides are high, the damage could be severe.”

This pattern is not just coincidental.

Experts explain that the transition period before monsoon onset creates ideal conditions for cyclone development.

“Low-pressure systems often form before the monsoon arrives,” said Meteorologist Hafizur Rahman. “It`s too early to confirm whether this will become a full-blown cyclone, but the risk is real.”

A season within a season

According to the Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT), the monsoon typically enters the country between May 20 and June 19. But before the rains arrive, the Bay of Bengal churns with dangerous energy.

This year, the cyclone system is expected to develop from a low-pressure area into a Category-1 cyclone, potentially bringing strong winds, heavy rainfall, and tidal surges to the coastlines of Barihsal, Khulna, Patuakhali, and Cox’s Bazar.

After the cyclone passes, monsoon winds may sweep inland by late May, colliding with dry air masses and triggering pre-monsoon thunderstorms. Then, by early June, the full monsoon season is expected to begin.

Remal’s scars still fresh

Last year’s Cyclone Remal, which made landfall near Khepupara in Patuakhali on May 27, 2024, left deep scars.

Wind speeds reached 111 kilometres per hour, 3.758 million people were affected, over 35,000 houses destroyed, Tk 508 crore worth of crop damaged in Barisal alone, 5,000 thatched houses wiped out in Khulna, and the impact was across 48 districts.

One year later, many communities remain struggling to recover.

“People are still helpless,” said Mohan Kumar Mandal, Executive Director of LEADERS (Local Environment Development and Agricultural Research Society). “Every year, cyclones bring fresh losses. Farmers worry more now than ever. Many displaced by past storms haven’t even rebuilt their homes.”

Preparedness or peril?

Despite repeated disasters, preparedness remains a challenge.

“We’ve started communicating with coastal administrations,” said Rezwanur Rahman, Director General of the Disaster Management Department. “We’ve allocated Tk 15 crore, stored dry food, and mobilised over 80,000 volunteers. We’re pretty much ready.”

In Barishal, authorities claim to have 541 cyclone shelters, over 500 tonnes of rice in warehouses, and Tk 30 lakh in emergency funds ready.

But on the ground, concerns persist.

“Many people still refuse to go to shelters,” said Mandal.

“They fear losing everything again. Compensation must be faster and fairer. People need long-term support—not just relief during disasters.”

Climate change intensifies the risk

Ecological experts warn that climate change is making cyclones more frequent and unpredictable.

“The Bay of Bengal is warming rapidly,” said Sharif Jamil, coordinator of Water Keepers Bangladesh. “Communities here don’t get time to rebuild before the next disaster hits. Without long-term rehabilitation and employment opportunities, their resilience is breaking down.”

He stressed that disaster management must go beyond immediate relief to include reconstruction, livelihood restoration, and ecological recovery.

A call for vigilance

With the cyclone season already underway, the message is clear: preparedness saves lives.

- Coastal residents are being advised to stay alert.

- Early warning systems are being activated.

- Shelters are being checked and stocked.

- Volunteers are being trained.

Yet, as the nation braces for another potential storm, one question lingers:

Will we be ready — not just for the next cyclone, but for the cycle of loss and recovery that follows?

Living under the storm clouds

For Bangladesh’s coastal communities, May is no longer just a month of transition between seasons. It has become a time of anxiety, where every weather update brings fresh fear.

From Satkhira to Cox’s Bazar, families are watching the skies, hoping this year’s storm will pass gently – or better yet, not come at all. As Rezwanur Rahman put it: “We can’t stop nature. But we can be ready.”

Whether that readiness is enough, only time – and the winds – will tell.